The prime minister’s rousing rhetoric on Ukraine’s crisis buys him a reprieve from his difficulties… for the time being, at least.
The importance of the event, and the dramatic shift in political mood, on Thursday evening was represented by the stillness in the House of Commons, rather than the words delivered from the dispatch box.
Boris Johnson was awakened at 4.10 a.m. that morning to learn that Vladimir Putin’s army had breached the Ukrainian border. It was exactly what military intelligence had predicted.
However, Putin’s ominous warning that any opposition would result in “unprecedented repercussions” hammered home the threat not just to Ukraine as a sovereign nation, but also to European and global stability.
By 4.30 a.m., the prime minister was awake and talking to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on the phone from Downing Street, pledging solidarity and assistance.
Johnson’s mood was described as “motivated, anxious, moved and energetic” by an assistant. He addressed the British people at noon before turning again to a reinforced package of sanctions against Moscow. He came up with a fresh three-word slogan – “Putin must fail” – which he reiterated at cabinet later that evening.By mid-morning, though, MPs from all parties were meandering around parliament, disoriented and terrified.
Only weeks before, speculation of Johnson facing a vote of no confidence over the “partygate” issue had swept the Tory party, with opposition MPs and leaders accusing him of being a serial rule-breaker and liar unsuitable to hold Downing Street.
For weeks, the prime minister’s appearances in the Commons had turned the chamber into a bear pit. To highlight the decline of British politics, No 10 disclosed weeks ago that the prime minister had completed and returned a Scotland Yard questionnaire concerning gatherings in Downing Street that looked to have taken place in violation of lockdown rules.
Despite everything, Johnson was adamant about sticking it out and turning things around at home. He announced the lifting of all remaining Covid-19 limitations in England on Monday, saying it was time to return the country to “normalcy.”
But there was nothing typical about the House of Commons or British politics when he rose to address MPs at 5 p.m. on Thursday – at least not in comparison to recent times.
Hundreds of MPs from various parties sat still in the room, which was full yet eerily quiet. Within 15 minutes, it was evident that recent unsavoury political debates had been absorbed and rendered unimportant – at least temporarily.
“The severity of what has happened in Ukraine has transcended party politics,” one Tory MP and former minister, himself a critic of the prime minister who had wanted him to go over partygate until a few days ago, remarked afterwards. There was a sense of seriousness and common purpose that overtook everything.“
In reverent stillness, the prime minister was heard. So was Labour leader Keir Starmer, and – more surprisingly – Ian Blackford of the Scottish National Party, whose every statement is generally met with jeers from opponents.
Johnson told MPs that Putin was “hurling the might of his military machine against a free and peaceful neighbour in breach of his own explicit pledge and every principle of civilised behaviour between states”.
To anyone who saw the connection, this was rule-breaking on a far other magnitude than the one that Westminster had been fixated on previously. “It would be ludicrous to talk about parties any more.” A senior Labour MP observed, “It would sound completely trivial.”
When responding to Johnson’s statement announcing further penalties, the Labour leader spared any criticism. Instead, he proposed a combined occupation of the high ground with the prime minister, proclaiming that “those of us who believe in democracy over dictatorship, in the rule of law over the reign of terror, and in freedom over the jackboot of tyranny must unite and take a stand must unite and take a stand.” There was nothing to be gained by scoring political points against Johnson for Starmer.
Instead, any benefit he gained from playing the patriotic, pro-NATO, anti-Putin cards was in separating himself from his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and those on the left of the party affiliated with the Stop the War movement.
The chamber was filled with harmony. Labour would support the prime minister if he passed legislation aimed at “breaking up the shell businesses” where “Putin and his fellow crooks” had concealed money stolen from the Russian people, according to Starmer. Johnson looked up and nodded his head in accord as he did so.
As one Labour frontbencher described it, there were times when domestic politics was put on hold, with Johnson plainly benefiting in short-term political terms.“ What is happening is that we are entering a period of quasi-national government which we had early on in the pandemic. That benefits the incumbent and makes it difficult for the opposition to do what we are here to do, which is to show up points of difference with the government.”
Insiders say the attitude in Downing Street has changed dramatically since weeks ago. Then, as advisers resigned and Tory MPs threatened to depose Johnson, there was a sense of anarchy and decay. With a new staff in place and a new adversary, there is at least a clear focus and a developing strategy.
Just as Margaret Thatcher boosted her poll ratings by ten points by going to war with Argentina in the Falklands in 1982, Johnson and his backers can see opportunities to re-energize and save his leadership from what appeared to be looming disaster in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Johnson’s friend emphasised that it is the prime minister who is pushing the hardest for Russia to be taken out of the international payments system Swift, as Kyiv has demanded.
Other G7 and world leaders, particularly Germany, are said to be resisting the move, fearful of the economic and other ramifications of taking such harsh measures against Putin and his dictatorship.
Johnson was on the phone from Chequers, making the case to fellow leaders and seeking to present himself as a winner on the world stage in a major sanctions debate.
In the same breath, Johnson’s aides point out that he wants to use the issue to show that now that the UK is out of the EU, it can have more – not less – influence in foreign affairs, a position that is not universally accepted in the Foreign Office.
He also sees an opportunity to put in place a plan to guarantee that the UK reduces its dependency on Russian and other foreign energy supply by investing even more significantly in renewables at home.
However, if any clear strategic lines emerge from Downing Street, Tory MPs are well aware that a lot will have to go right for Johnson in the coming, perilous months if he is to duplicate Thatcher’s comeback.
Whatever happens with Russia and Ukraine, whether the crisis develops or not, the police will release the findings of their investigations into partygate in the coming weeks, which might result in the prime minister being penalised for attending a series of events that violated Covid guidelines.
Following that, the full report by senior civil servant Sue Gray will be made public, potentially exposing the prime leader to even more criticism. It’s possible that a lot will come down to time.
As one former Tory minister said: “Downing Street will be praying that the reports come as soon as possible before the focus goes off Ukraine. I think that if they come in the next couple of weeks, he’s safe. No party would change their leader with this going on.”
Another Tory MP predicted that as a result of the prolonged dispute, the cost of living problem would deepen – with energy prices rising even higher – wreaking havoc on the Johnson government’s long-term popularity.
“There are a lot of booby-traps to come,” he said. “We have tax rises in April, and energy prices soaring. All as we approach the May local elections. He is by no means out of the woods.”
Johnson remains highly unpopular and widely distrusted, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. When asked if he could be “trusted to take significant decisions” in light of the events in Ukraine, only 25% answered he could, while 56% said he couldn’t. Only 24% thought he was a strong leader, compared to 53% who did not; and 30% thought he could stand up for Britain internationally, compared to 47% who did not.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in a dramatic shift in British politics – a truce – which has temporarily alleviated Johnson’s domestic dilemma.
But it has also created a more dangerous world, one in which global economic problems will worsen and prices will rise faster and faster, compounding the problems and risks faced by democratically elected leaders around the world, particularly those who already lack widespread public support – such as the current occupant of Number 10 –
