More than seven years after the referendum and over three and a half years since the UK officially departed from the European Union, the topic remains a hot-button issue, igniting intense discussions and frequent media coverage. Numerous studies have delved into British sentiments regarding the exit from Europe and have investigated public opinions, including examinations of ‘Bregret’ consequences. One key factor contributing to the ongoing debate is the belief that public sentiment is still in flux. There’s been substantial discourse around ‘Brexit regret’, particularly among those who voted to Leave. Whether they supported Remain or Leave, a prevailing cause for dissatisfaction among people revolves around economic concerns such as rising prices, labour shortages, and a generally weaker economy. This issue has not only affected internal matters of the UK but also shaped and will shape Britain-EU relations after voting to leave.
What do people think about the idea and performance of Brexit?
A public opinion study exploring Bregret consequences and The public associate’s several daily life issues, including travel delays (36%), increases in cost of living (79%), and staff vacancies across sectors (42%in health and social care, 40% in hospitality), to some extent with Brexit. Many also agree that other global events, such as the Coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have contributed to these issues. Most voters are pessimistic about the impact of Brexit in the long run. Less than a third of respondents (27%) think Brexit will turn out well. However, most Leave voters believe it will (61%), although this optimism is much less prevalent among those who feel Brexit is going badly (19%).
While numerous Leave supporters perceive Brexit as faltering, this sentiment doesn’t necessarily equate to regretting their decision to vote Leave. Many Leave voters believe that departing from the EU could have provided economic advantages for the UK, although these potential benefits have yet to materialize (70%). This perspective is shared by those who might now lean towards remaining (56%) and Leave supporters who are critical of Brexit’s current trajectory (58%). Despite the perceived shortcomings, most voters assert that, given the current knowledge, they would cast the same vote as in 2016. However, there’s a greater tendency among Leave voters to express a potential change in their voting choice compared to Remainers (16% versus 6%).
Additionally, many Leave supporters attribute Brexit’s stumbles to the need for more competence among British political leaders. Interestingly, 51% of Leave voters believe Brexit could have been successful, yet they don’t cite the ineffectiveness of UK politicians as a primary reason for its shortcomings. These insights are drawn from research findings exploring British attitudes toward the exit from the European Union.
How have ideas changed?
During the referendum held on June 23, 2016, the Leave campaign secured 51.9% of the votes, while Remain garnered 48.1%. Before the referendum, numerous polls indicated a slight edge for the Remain side. The expectation was that Remain would emerge victorious until early indications from North East England showed a more robust performance for the withdrawal side, setting a trend that played out across the nation. This pattern echoed in the US election of the same year, as Donald Trump clinched victories in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin despite earlier predictions favouring Hillary Clinton in these regions.
Based on the Public opinion study exploring Bregret consequences and British attitudes towards exiting from Europe, as of November 2023, 57 per cent of people in the UK believed it was wrong to leave the European Union, compared with 33 per cent who thought it was the right decision. During this period, the share of people who regret Brexit has been higher than those who support it, except for some polls in Spring 2021, which showed higher support for Brexit. The share of people who don’t know whether Brexit was the right or wrong decision has typically been stable and usually varied between 11 and 14 per cent.
The UK’s Brexit experience has dramatically impacted nationalist discourses throughout continental European countries.
Generally speaking, when Brexit seemed to go well for the UK, it saw a proliferation of nationalist demands for similar exits in other countries. However, when Brexit started to look less and less like what the Brexiteers had vowed, nationalist parties and politicians appeared discouraged from following anti-EU and exit policies. Instead, they focused on policies for EU reforms from within. At the same time, globalisation dynamics can increase when they are seen as promising ways by nationalists abroad.
Data has confirmed that leaving the EU has significantly impacted the economy.
None of the three major GB-wide political parties at Westminster currently advocates rejoining the European Union. 21% now think the economy is more robust than it would have been otherwise, compared with 19% in our previous poll. Similarly, 34% now feel that Brexit has given Britain more control over its affairs, up from 32% in August. The proportion who think EU immigration has fallen as a result of Brexit has edged up from 18% to 20%, though, at the same time, the proportion who believe that ‘illegal’ immigration has increased now stands at 48%, its highest level since we first started asking the question in February.
Therefore, it is unsurprising that views on Brexit continue to influence attitudes towards democracy and broader society in the UK. However, what isn’t so clear is whether this continued dissatisfaction among those on the pro-EU side will translate over time into lower political participation and increased apathy, particularly among younger voters – with the negative implications for British democracy this would entail.
Ideas have changed since Brexit.
The European Social Survey (ESS) has found that most British people view immigration positively despite the government’s controversial attempts to crack down on the phenomenon. Sampling attitudes every two years since 2002, it said perceptions of immigrants had become markedly more favourable over the past two decades. When it comes to the impact of immigration on the UK, a majority of those surveyed by the ESS last year (59%) said it had a positive effect on the economy – up from 17% in 2002.
Britain-EU relations after voting to leave
Following the thawing of relations post-Windsor Framework, the UK and EU have reaffirmed their dedication to maximizing the benefits of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). A pivotal achievement was the political accord regarding the UK’s participation in the Horizon and Copernicus programs. While discussions are ongoing in various other domains, the tracker emphasizes a noticeable divergence in conversations between the two sides regarding the relationship’s future. The Labour Party has outlined strategies to enhance the TCA to foster a more intimate trading partnership in the UK.
On the other hand, the EU needs more appetite for revisiting the terms of UK-EU trade. Bilaterally, the UK has now signed general statements or declarations with most EU member states. The focus is, therefore, shifting from formalising relations to maintaining and implementing them. This requires continued engagement, which the tracker indicates can be difficult to sustain at the highest political level.
Enriching UK-EU Relations
The government acknowledged the significance of enhancing bilateral collaboration and fostering Britain-EU relations post-Brexit to address mutual challenges across various domains, including foreign and security policies, trade, economy, youth initiatives, skills and education, technology, scientific research, cultural exchange, tackling illegal migration, ensuring energy security, and addressing climate and environmental concerns. Both parties recognize that this collaboration aligns with and enriches the broader UK-EU relationship, drawing from the Windsor Framework and Austria’s EU membership. They view the positive evolution of this relationship as bolstering their joint endeavours.
