The historic Good Friday Agreement struck a delicate power-sharing balance between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom in 1998. Still, the post-Brexit arrangements so far seemed to have damaged the procedural deals and bargains of the momentous pact, which brought an end to the violence.
The Good Friday Agreement acknowledged the legitimacy of the desire for a United Ireland. The call for the referendum on a United Ireland might soon become a real possibility in the wake of radical post-Brexit arrangements, as the increasing number of people sees. It is a favourable solution to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Northern Ireland protocol agreed by London and Brussels is there to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. However, it keeps Northern Ireland bound by some European Union trade rules while putting a trade border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
The High court Verdict
The High Court of Belfast recently suspended a ministerial decision to stop checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Judge Adrian Colton ruled that the decision by Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots was against the law, as it essentially violated a part of a post-Brexit deal; he ensured that goods from the United Kingdom did not enter the European Union without being checked. “There shouldn’t be any confusion hanging over those in the Civil Service, so I am persuaded this is a case where there should be interim relief,” the judge said in his ruling. “I, therefore, make the order to suspend the instruction given by the minister for agriculture until further order of this court,” he added.
After the judge overturned the ministerial order to scrap post-Brexit checks, the inspection of agri-food goods moving between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain will continue. So far, the issue of open or closed borders in the view of the post-Brexit protocol has remained unsolved. The unionists see the Northern Ireland Protocol as a huddle and an inconvenience, which keeps them from maintaining a cordial relationship with Britain. They also see the checks and inspections as a clear sign that the gulf of trade between Britain and Northern Ireland is expanding while unexpectedly getting closer between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The Resignation of Northern Ireland’s First Minister
The recent resignation of Paul Givan, Northern Ireland’s first minister from the Democratic Unionist party, has brought chaos and upheaval in Northern Ireland’s power-sharing regional government. The first minister called it quit because he was unhappy with the continued Brexit arrangements, particularly the Northern Ireland protocol.
The resignation came as the DUP ordered officials to halt checks on goods arriving from Great Britain. The resignation threatens the relationship between Northern Ireland and Britain, where both nationalist and unionist communities are trying to win institutions and people in their favour.
Although Democratic Unionist Party supports the Brexit referendum, it opposes the Northern Ireland protocol, which is designed to avoid a border on the island of Ireland. After the May elections, the United Kingdom and Democratic Unionist Party will look to ease the burden on trade and rework an interim deal, possibly eliminating most of the checks on food and farm products.
The Booming Trade of United Ireland After Brexit
Trade between Dublin and Belfast is growing faster, and it is expected to gain more momentum with time as the trade protocol makes it easier for the two Irish territories to buy goods from each other than London. While imports from Britain after Brexit has reduced, cross-border commerce has only increased.
More and more Irish companies are actively attempting to reduce their reliance on imports from Britain and switch their supply chains to Northern Ireland. The motivations behind such radical attitude of various industries are plain and simple because almost all traders and manufacturers find it easy to maintain barrier-free trade with their European partners after the United Kingdom left the single market of EU. Still, Northern Ireland stayed within a particular trade arrangement
The official figures published recently show that the value of Irish exports to Northern Ireland surged 54 % in 2021 to a historic high of €3.7 billion, including €1.3 billion in shipments of food products and live animals. The data also showed that Ireland’s imports with Northern Ireland increased up to 65% while recording a 13% fall in imports from Britain during the first year of Brexit checks. The value of Ireland’s imports from the UK, excluding Northern Ireland, fell to 15.4 billion euros from 17.7 billion, representing 15% of total imports last year compared to 21% in 2020.
The Endgame of The May Election
Northern Ireland will hold elections on May 5, but the diminishing popularity of the DUP will only make it harder for the unionists to continue the status quo. Any progress in the protocol negotiations is only expected from the Sinn Féin, which will become the largest party at Stormont after the May 5 Assembly elections. According to a new opinion poll conducted by the Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News Survey, Sinn Fein stands at 23.2 per cent of first preference votes among decided voters, well ahead of the DUP on 19.4 per cent cent.
The Northern Ireland Protocol is expected to be the most critical issue among the unionists in the election. Professor Peter Shirlow, the director of the Institute of Irish Studies, said: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests recent events have influenced them.” Undecided unionists may soon become nationalists, putting the political unionism once again for a vote. Under mounting political pressure at home, DUP will lose its ground to Sinn Féin, which is expected to become Ireland’s largest party in the May elections and favours joining the Republic of Ireland.
After Brexit: Northern Ireland choose the EU or UK.
The political rhetoric and unresolved Brexit issues have only added fuel to the fire of united Ireland. The checking of goods passing between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain is not only damaging the Northern Irish economy, but its increasing risks may well result in disintegrating the union between the two territories. Moreover, the issue of the Republic of Ireland remaining a European Union member state may result in Northern Ireland choosing a different fate for itself in the world.
Since the Brexit vote, the discussion about the future of Northern Ireland has increased. To remain in the UK or join a United Ireland has become now more or less a simple enough decision. When it comes to the idea of United Ireland, from the appropriate flag to the notion of a cohesive identity, there are many issues still unresolved around unification. But most Irish nationalists are serious about reuniting Ireland as a single sovereign state, which would protect the identity and interests of the Irish people.
The Irish Unity issue is still more or less contentious in the North, which may lose billions of Euros worth of subsidies at first. Still, the potential for a momentous political shift in pro-British parties is pulsating, seeking more political stability and increasing trade with other partners to compensate for the historic loss of peace and prosperity of their nation.
