The UK supreme court rejected the indyref2 plan, and Scotland could hold an independence referendum only if Westminster approved. Since Scotland lost this court, the road toward an independence referendum expected on October 2023, as the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announced, is blocked. Nicola Sturgeon warned that the next general election would be a defacto referendum on independence.
According to section 30 order, secondary legislation under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament legislative authority could permanently or temporarily increase or restrict. But after the referendum in 2014, although the Scottish first minister asked for this order again, the UK prime ministers rejected it. Even PM Boris Johnson, just hours before his resignation, left Scotland’s demand for holding a referendum.
At the same time, it is essential to know that the majority of Scottish were opposed to Brexit, and after the British voted to leave the EU, this became an incentive tool for them to become independent.
Scottish democracy denial
Now we can analyze this Supreme Court order as England’s effort to keep this unity even by force and democracy denial.
Scottish want to hold an independence referendum to preserve their democracy and care more about their people’s will. Still, it is obvious that for Britain, democracy and Scottish will are not in priority, and they prefer to keep this unity in any possible way. Although the UK claims they care about people’s right to decide their future, they do not pledge to that.
The UK is facing the worst energy crisis after WW2 because of the imposing sanctions against Russia and the disruption in energy supply chains. Energy bill soars, and UK Inflation Reaches 11.1%, which is the Highest in More Than 40 Years. In this situation, the UK, which has a problem managing the economic crisis, denies Scotland’s will for independence. On the other hand, after Brexit, Scotland faces more barriers to trade and economic ties with the EU since the UK still could not reach a comprehensive agreement with the EU in the post-Brexit era. So, Scottish feels a kind of Systemic Discrimination. Although they have many problems in the UK, they could not hold an independence referendum.
On 11 September 1997, a referendum on Scottish devolution was held, with 74% voting in favor of a Scottish Parliament and 63% voting for the parliament to have powers to vary the introductory income tax rate. This referendum result led to the introduction by the UK government of the Scotland bill, which got Royal Assent on November 1998 and approved the Scotland Act 1998. According to the Act of Sederunt or Devolution act 1999, Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland should be equal partners in the interests and priorities of the United Kingdom of Britain and Northern Ireland. But now it seems Scotland is not an equal partner for England.
England has many problems in foreign policy, including the Ukraine war, the China-Taiwan tension, and the energy crisis. In this situation, England preferred not to add another problem and rejected the independence referendum even at the cost of Scotland’s democracy denial.
Scotland Outrage
After the UK supreme court ordered Scotland could not hold a referendum on independence without Westminster approval, many Scottish take rally against that.
Hundreds of people in different cities of Scotland, including Glasgow and Edinburgh, gathered in the street to hold the second independence referendum. Also, Nicola Sturgeon was addressing the crowd gathered outside the Scottish Parliament.
In social media, many Scottish accounts criticized the supreme court order.
Also, polls show half of the Scottish people back SNP in the next general election, which is considered a defacto referendum. When they support Scotland National Party in the election, it means they support Nicola Sturgeon’s plan for holding an independence referendum.
Why does Scotland want to hold a referendum?
When we talk about the Scottish desire for an independence referendum, it is essential to know the reasons for this independence. Understanding the causes could help to analyze better about the situation.
The first reason that can be mentioned is the identity issue. According to polls, people of England, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland identify as their nationality rather than British.
This is a warning alarm on unity and shows independence feeling hike in these regions. We see Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, emphasizing from time to time its will to hold an independence referendum. After the refugee crisis in 2014, when many refugees entered European countries, this identity crisis became a more serious issue.
The second issue is about economics. Scotland believes that, particularly after Brexit, it faces trade import and export barriers. However, some thought that the independence of Scotland from the UK could worsen the economic situation of both Scotland and the remains of the UK.
The third issue is about democracy. Now Scottish believes their will is not essential for England. So even though the result of the referendum led the country toward keeping this unit as 2014, they must take this referendum as a symbol of their rights for decision making.
Until these two main problems remain, the possibility of an independence referendum exists.
