Trump’s victory in 2024
Donald Trump, the former president of the United States, was re-elected as the new president in a significant competition in the US 2024 election. Among US presidents, after Grover Cleveland, Trump is the second president to be elected for two non-consecutive terms. As the Republican Party candidate, he defeated Kamala Harris with 312 electoral votes. His victory has some consequences in the world. It also has effects on US-UK relations.
Trump entered the 2024 election arena by repeating some of his slogans from 2016. The specific domestic and international conditions of the United States made voters welcome Trump. These conditions included the Russian-Ukraine war, the Israeli war, economic competition with China, and the high economic costs of the US government. This victory will significantly affect countries worldwide, especially its strategic allies such as the United Kingdom.
Regardless of the reaction of the current British government, US-UK relations will continue to be more stable and more potent. Ultimately, due to the complexities of the European situation and British society, the UK foreign policy response to the second Trump administration will be positive and constructive.
Effects on US-UK relations
Trump’s victory will significantly affect US policy, especially regarding the country’s foreign policy. These effects, in addition to possible changes in the international theatre, may affect allies such as Britain. Although some of Trump’s policies are unpredictable, Britain is his first and most important strategic partner in Europe and the world. Therefore, the effects on US-UK relations will be strengthened, and we will witness joint international actions. On the other hand, given the good relationship between the first Trump administration and Britain, these relations will also be stable in the second administration.
The Trump administration will have various relations with the UK government, including diplomatic, defence, and economic relations. Despite the differences of opinion, in the diplomatic aspect, Trump, in cooperation with the British government, will try to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Even if this end of the war grants concessions to Russia.
Trump will spend less money and budget on NATO, reducing financial and economic pressure on the US government. This could also endanger the existence of this military organization and even the European Union. Therefore, the best course of action is bilateral cooperation between the United States and the United Kingdom. This bilateral cooperation will strengthen the two Anglo-Saxon countries and maintain transatlantic relations. And, of course, Britain, as the representative of the United States in Europe, also plays a vital role in defence matters.
From an economic perspective, it is essential to keep Britain away from China, which is considered an economic rival of the United States. After Trump’s official inauguration, he will impose the most severe tariffs against China. On the other hand, the Trump administration is trying to bring other economic markets, such as the Persian Gulf countries, closer to the United Kingdom. Concerning Trump’s effects on US-UK relations, reaching the British market as an export destination for American merchants will be another goal.
UK response to Trump’s second term
British citizens are not happy about Trump’s re-election. In addition, British rulers and politicians are also likely to give Trump a cold welcome. However, this reaction is temporary and short-lived. On the contrary, the British government and Sir Keir Starmer had a good relationship with Trump even before he won the election. The UK Prime Minister made an early call with Trump shortly after he survived an assassination attempt. He also congratulated Trump after he won the 2024 presidential election. The relationship between the British Labor Party and the US Republican Party has always been warm and cordial throughout the history of the two countries. The relationship between the two parties has also made significant and strategic contributions to the two countries in international cooperation. Therefore, the relationship between the two parties is unlikely to be challenged. Ultimately, the UK response to Trump’s second term will be entirely and consciously positive and constructive.
UK foreign policy with Trump
The US-UK relations are defined as strategic and transatlantic. Both countries’ commonalities and longstanding common interests inevitably lead their governments to cooperate. The UK’s foreign policy in international affairs has always been aligned with the policies of the United States. These coordinated policies range from cooperation in diplomatic organizations to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Thus, individuals such as the British Prime Minister or the US President do not have negative effects on US-UK relations.
Although the British ruling government may have opposing positions towards Trump, in practice, cooperation and alignment in foreign policy with the United States are inevitable, given its domestic and international limitations. This cooperation has various reasons.
The first reason is the possibility of a European war led by Britain with Russia. Given Trump’s threat to withdraw from NATO due to its high costs, Britain must coordinate its foreign policy with Trump from the perspective that the United States is not leaving Britain and Europe alone in a future war. And the Trump administration will commit to providing aid and selling military weapons to Britain and Europe.
The following reason is Britain’s international role in gaining power in the new world order. London must adjust and coordinate the UK foreign policy with the Trump administration to achieve this goal. Given the regional wars in different parts of the world, the possibility of a third world war exists. A world war would destroy the current world order and bring about a new one. Britain strongly desires to gain power and a special share in the new world order, like the previous order. Therefore, it needs to play a role at the international level, which is possible with the cooperation of the UK foreign policy with Trump.
How Trump’s second administration may influence UK
Trump’s foreign policy decisions are very shocking and unpredictable. These decisions can be challenging for many world organizations and governments, including the UK. And these decisions can look very different in Trump’s second term than in the first.
Given that US-UK relations will increase in Trump’s second term, this issue may also have advantages and challenges for the British government. The Trump administration needs important European actors to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. In addition, Britain, due to gaining power in the new world order, needs to help Trump. Moreover, using Britain’s cultural and security influence in the Middle East, provided that it gains new and greater privileges, the US should consider creating a vital role for Britain. Of course, Trump will create challenges for the British government in the next two years.
In other words, by imposing severe economic tariffs on China, Trump will cause problems in Britain’s relations with China. This could have negative effects on the British national economy. The Trump administration is also keen to withdraw from international treaties and organizations. Withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris Agreement are examples of these actions. This could be a decision to withdraw from NATO or to ignore this military organization in Trump’s second term. This means the UK will face a new military and budgetary challenge in this organization.
The Trump administration will likely support the UK Brexit process based on Trump’s inward-focused approach rather than internationalism. This support may lead to Nigel Farage winning the upcoming UK election.
Despite all of this, including the positive and negative impacts of the Trump administration on Britain and the effects on US-UK relations, the future for Britain is very uncertain. We must wait until Donald Trump officially takes power in the White House in January 2025.
